How Magic & Tragic Numbers Work
A simple way to understand NHL playoff races — without spreadsheets.
Playoff races aren’t just about wins and losses — they’re about paths.
NHL Magic Numbers tracks those paths using two countdowns:
- Magic # — how close a team is to clinching
- Tragic # — how close a team is to elimination
In most cases, one reaches 0 first — clinched or eliminated.
We calculate both within your team’s conference.
Magic # — Clinching the playoffs
Magic # counts down to clinching a playoff spot.
When Magic reaches 0, your team is guaranteed a place in the postseason — no matter what happens elsewhere.
How it’s anchored: There are two routes into the playoffs — a division top-3 finish or a wild card. Magic is the number of points you still need so that, even on worst-case tiebreaks, enough rivals run out of ceiling (their max possible points) that one of those routes is guaranteed. Ties are treated as unresolved, so we never call a clinch early.
Magic goes down when:
- Your team earns points
- Teams around the bubble lose (the “threat line” gets weaker)
- Other teams’ max ceilings shrink as they run out of games
Tragic # — Elimination margin
Tragic # counts down to mathematical elimination.
When Tragic reaches 0, there is no possible future where your team can make the playoffs.
How it’s anchored: You’re only eliminated when both routes into the playoffs are dead — the division top-3 (anchored to the 3rd-best rival in your division) and the wild card (anchored to the 2nd-best team in the wild-card pool). Tragic tracks whichever route stays alive longer, and a schedule-aware check also catches “forced” eliminations where head-to-head games among the chasers must push someone past you.
Tragic goes down when:
- The anchor chaser gains points
- Your team loses (you burn a game and lower your future ceiling)
Why numbers can move in surprising ways
- Tragic can go down even after a win
- Magic may not change after a loss
- Both can move at once
This happens because the numbers depend on ceilings (max possible points) and the chaser line — not just whether you won tonight.
Example: if you win, Magic often drops (you gained points), but Tragic can also drop if the anchor chaser gained ground elsewhere or if your ceiling changed relative to that line.
Why we show both numbers
Most standings tell you where teams are right now. Magic & Tragic tell you what’s still possible.
- Who controls their own fate
- Who needs help
- Who’s running out of runway
Together, they show the shape of the race — not just the snapshot.
How NHL playoff odds work
When the season is live, we simulate every remaining game thousands of times. Each team's strength comes from its points percentage regressed toward the league average, each game is decided by a head-to-head formula with home-ice advantage, and overtime is modeled so loser points are awarded realistically — an NHL quirk that pure win/loss models miss.
Every simulated season awards the top three spots in each division plus two wild cards per conference, with ties broken NHL-style (regulation wins, then regulation + overtime wins). The percentage on the odds page is how often each team made it across all simulated seasons.
The magic and tragic numbers cover the part of the race that's mathematically certain.
How the NHL draft lottery works
All 16 non-playoff teams enter with the NHL's published odds (the worst record gets 18.5% of the tickets). Two draws are held — one for the first overall pick and one for the second — and a winner can move up a maximum of 10 spots. That cap means only the bottom 11 teams can actually land the No. 1 pick; when a team seeded 12th–16th wins a draw, it climbs the full 10 spots and the top pick falls to the best remaining seed. Teams that don't win a draw slot in by reverse order of the standings.
On the draft lottery page we turn those rules into a full pick-by-pick probability table by running hundreds of thousands of simulated lotteries, and the simulator button plays out a single draw the same way the real one is conducted.
Draft position ties are broken with our standings tiebreak model, and the league's twice-in-five-years lottery-win limit isn't modeled — treat edge cases as approximate.