NFL Playoff Odds
Every team's chance to make the postseason, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Click a team for its magic number card.
AFC
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Bye % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 93.4% | 88.7% | 4.7% | 26.4% | 3-0 | 11.7 | East |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 89.8% | 46.1% | 43.7% | 23.0% | 3-0 | 11.5 | West |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 88.8% | 45.5% | 43.2% | 23.5% | 3-0 | 11.5 | West |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 77.8% | 73.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2-1 | 9.8 | South |
| Cleveland Browns | 74.9% | 41.1% | 33.9% | 8.1% | 3-1 | 10.6 | North |
| Baltimore Ravens | 62.6% | 26.7% | 35.9% | 5.2% | 2-1 | 9.8 | North |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 57.4% | 22.9% | 34.6% | 4.5% | 2-1 | 9.7 | North |
| Denver Broncos | 50.6% | 8.4% | 42.2% | 3.2% | 2-1 | 9.3 | West |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 35.9% | 9.4% | 26.5% | 0.8% | 2-2 | 8.7 | North |
| Indianapolis Colts | 25.9% | 20.3% | 5.6% | 0.1% | 1-2 | 7.5 | South |
| New York Jets | 16.5% | 5.3% | 11.2% | 0.3% | 1-2 | 7.1 | East |
| New England Patriots | 16.2% | 5.4% | 10.8% | 0.3% | 1-2 | 7.2 | East |
| Houston Texans | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0-3 | 5.4 | South |
| Tennessee Titans | 3.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0-3 | 5.1 | South |
| Miami Dolphins | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0-3 | 5.0 | East |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 1.2% | <0.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0-3 | 4.9 | West |
NFC
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Bye % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 95.5% | 71.2% | 24.4% | 42.1% | 3-0 | 12.1 | North |
| San Francisco 49ers | 90.8% | 75.1% | 15.8% | 28.1% | 3-0 | 11.5 | West |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 67.1% | 46.0% | 21.2% | 6.1% | 2-1 | 9.9 | East |
| Detroit Lions | 64.2% | 15.5% | 48.7% | 6.9% | 2-1 | 9.8 | North |
| Chicago Bears | 63.9% | 11.7% | 52.1% | 5.0% | 2-1 | 9.7 | North |
| New York Giants | 61.8% | 39.4% | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2-1 | 9.6 | East |
| Seattle Seahawks | 54.8% | 20.2% | 34.6% | 4.1% | 2-1 | 9.4 | West |
| Carolina Panthers | 38.5% | 35.3% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 1-2 | 7.6 | South |
| New Orleans Saints | 36.7% | 33.3% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 1-2 | 7.6 | South |
| Atlanta Falcons | 27.9% | 23.6% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 1-2 | 7.2 | South |
| Dallas Cowboys | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 0.6% | 1-2 | 7.6 | East |
| Green Bay Packers | 19.8% | 1.7% | 18.2% | 0.4% | 1-2 | 7.7 | North |
| Washington Commanders | 18.6% | 5.9% | 12.8% | 0.4% | 1-2 | 7.5 | East |
| Los Angeles Rams | 15.5% | 2.8% | 12.7% | 0.2% | 1-2 | 7.2 | West |
| Arizona Cardinals | 13.5% | 1.9% | 11.5% | 0.2% | 1-2 | 7.2 | West |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.7% | 7.7% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0-3 | 5.5 | South |
These odds come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule — regressed team strength, log5 head-to-head with a home-field edge, and the first rungs of the NFL's tiebreak ladder. Full methodology in How It Works.
Last computed Oct 3, 01:41 UTC ·
10,000 simulations