NFL Playoff Odds
Every team's chance to make the postseason, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Click a team for its magic number card.
AFC
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Bye % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 97.4% | 80.8% | 16.6% | 50.6% | 4-0 | 12.6 | West |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 87.9% | 77.4% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 3-1 | 10.8 | South |
| Baltimore Ravens | 78.4% | 40.7% | 37.7% | 9.6% | 3-1 | 10.6 | North |
| Cleveland Browns | 78.0% | 41.9% | 36.1% | 7.6% | 3-1 | 10.6 | North |
| Buffalo Bills | 77.5% | 63.2% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 3-1 | 10.2 | East |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 73.9% | 15.2% | 58.7% | 6.8% | 3-1 | 10.3 | West |
| New England Patriots | 48.7% | 30.4% | 18.3% | 1.4% | 2-2 | 8.7 | East |
| Indianapolis Colts | 38.9% | 21.8% | 17.1% | 0.7% | 2-2 | 8.6 | South |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 37.6% | 9.4% | 28.2% | 1.0% | 2-2 | 8.7 | North |
| Denver Broncos | 37.5% | 4.1% | 33.4% | 1.3% | 2-2 | 8.6 | West |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 30.6% | 8.0% | 22.6% | 1.0% | 2-2 | 8.5 | North |
| New York Jets | 10.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 0.1% | 1-3 | 6.5 | East |
| Miami Dolphins | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0-4 | 4.5 | East |
| Tennessee Titans | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0-4 | 4.5 | South |
| Houston Texans | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0-4 | 4.4 | South |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0-4 | 4.3 | West |
NFC
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Bye % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 97.5% | 78.7% | 18.7% | 44.2% | 4-0 | 12.7 | North |
| San Francisco 49ers | 94.7% | 75.8% | 18.9% | 32.9% | 4-0 | 12.2 | West |
| New York Giants | 80.1% | 69.3% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 3-1 | 10.6 | East |
| Chicago Bears | 75.5% | 14.4% | 61.1% | 5.9% | 3-1 | 10.4 | North |
| Seattle Seahawks | 65.3% | 19.5% | 45.8% | 4.6% | 3-1 | 10.0 | West |
| Carolina Panthers | 55.1% | 50.1% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 2-2 | 8.6 | South |
| Atlanta Falcons | 44.9% | 36.0% | 8.9% | 0.7% | 2-2 | 8.3 | South |
| Green Bay Packers | 36.3% | 3.5% | 32.9% | 0.8% | 2-2 | 8.7 | North |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 35.6% | 20.7% | 14.9% | 0.6% | 2-2 | 8.5 | East |
| Los Angeles Rams | 35.2% | 4.2% | 31.0% | 0.8% | 2-2 | 8.5 | West |
| Detroit Lions | 33.2% | 3.5% | 29.8% | 0.9% | 2-2 | 8.5 | North |
| Dallas Cowboys | 17.1% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.2% | 2-3 | 7.5 | East |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.8% | 7.8% | 2.0% | <0.1% | 1-3 | 6.3 | South |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.1% | 6.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 1-4 | 5.8 | South |
| Washington Commanders | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 0.1% | 1-3 | 6.5 | East |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.6% | 0.5% | 5.1% | <0.1% | 1-3 | 6.4 | West |
These odds come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule — regressed team strength, log5 head-to-head with a home-field edge, and the first rungs of the NFL's tiebreak ladder. Full methodology in How It Works.
Last computed Oct 10, 10:41 UTC ·
10,000 simulations