NBA Playoff Odds
Every team's chance to make the postseason — directly as a top-6 seed or through the play-in tournament — from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Click a team for its magic number card.
Eastern Conference
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| Team | Playoffs % | Top-6 % | Play-in % | Via play-in % | Div % | No. 1 % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 54.1% | 40.2% | 26.9% | 13.9% | 19.9% | 6.2% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Central |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 53.8% | 40.5% | 26.4% | 13.3% | 20.6% | 6.8% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Central |
| New York Knicks | 53.7% | 40.4% | 26.3% | 13.3% | 20.1% | 6.9% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Atlantic |
| Charlotte Hornets | 53.7% | 40.1% | 26.7% | 13.6% | 19.5% | 6.8% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southeast |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 53.7% | 40.4% | 26.3% | 13.3% | 19.9% | 6.3% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Atlantic |
| Detroit Pistons | 53.6% | 40.1% | 27.3% | 13.5% | 20.5% | 6.2% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Central |
| Washington Wizards | 53.5% | 40.5% | 26.3% | 13.0% | 19.9% | 6.9% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southeast |
| Toronto Raptors | 53.4% | 40.2% | 26.8% | 13.2% | 20.3% | 6.7% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Atlantic |
| Boston Celtics | 53.3% | 39.9% | 26.4% | 13.5% | 19.8% | 6.5% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Atlantic |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 53.3% | 40.1% | 26.4% | 13.2% | 19.9% | 6.5% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Central |
| Miami Heat | 53.2% | 40.1% | 26.5% | 13.1% | 20.3% | 7.1% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southeast |
| Orlando Magic | 53.2% | 40.2% | 26.4% | 13.0% | 19.6% | 6.7% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southeast |
| Brooklyn Nets | 53.1% | 39.5% | 27.3% | 13.6% | 20.0% | 6.9% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Atlantic |
| Atlanta Hawks | 52.9% | 39.6% | 27.6% | 13.3% | 20.6% | 7.2% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southeast |
| Indiana Pacers | 51.6% | 38.3% | 26.7% | 13.3% | 19.2% | 6.4% | 0-0 | 39.8 | Central |
Western Conference
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| Team | Playoffs % | Top-6 % | Play-in % | Via play-in % | Div % | No. 1 % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 54.1% | 41.2% | 25.6% | 12.9% | 21.0% | 7.1% | 0-0 | 40.1 | Northwest |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 54.1% | 40.1% | 27.7% | 14.0% | 19.8% | 6.5% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Pacific |
| San Antonio Spurs | 53.6% | 40.2% | 26.9% | 13.3% | 20.1% | 6.5% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southwest |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 53.5% | 40.4% | 26.5% | 13.2% | 20.1% | 7.0% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Northwest |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 53.4% | 40.0% | 26.7% | 13.4% | 20.4% | 6.8% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Northwest |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 53.4% | 39.9% | 26.7% | 13.5% | 20.0% | 6.4% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southwest |
| Phoenix Suns | 53.4% | 40.2% | 26.7% | 13.2% | 19.8% | 6.8% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Pacific |
| Utah Jazz | 53.4% | 40.4% | 26.3% | 13.0% | 19.9% | 6.0% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Northwest |
| Golden State Warriors | 53.3% | 40.1% | 26.6% | 13.2% | 20.4% | 6.5% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Pacific |
| Houston Rockets | 53.2% | 39.9% | 26.8% | 13.3% | 20.1% | 6.9% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southwest |
| LA Clippers | 53.2% | 39.6% | 26.9% | 13.7% | 19.9% | 6.9% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Pacific |
| Dallas Mavericks | 53.1% | 39.5% | 26.9% | 13.6% | 19.9% | 6.7% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Southwest |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 52.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 13.3% | 19.9% | 6.6% | 0-0 | 39.9 | Southwest |
| Sacramento Kings | 52.8% | 39.9% | 26.5% | 12.9% | 20.1% | 7.0% | 0-0 | 40.0 | Pacific |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 52.7% | 39.2% | 26.6% | 13.5% | 18.6% | 6.4% | 0-0 | 39.9 | Northwest |
These odds come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule — regressed team strength, log5 head-to-head with a home-court edge, the first rungs of the NBA's tiebreak ladder, and a simulated play-in tournament for seeds 7–10. Full methodology in How It Works.
Last computed Oct 20, 19:45 UTC ·
10,000 simulations