MLB Playoff Odds
Every team's chance to make the postseason, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Click a team for its magic number card.
American League
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | >99.9% | 83.1% | 16.9% | 86-58 | 96 | East |
| New York Yankees | >99.9% | 16.3% | 83.7% | 82-62 | 92 | East |
| Boston Red Sox | 99.8% | 0.6% | 99.2% | 80-66 | 89 | East |
| Chicago White Sox | 91.9% | 76.0% | 15.9% | 75-69 | 85 | Central |
| Houston Astros | 78.6% | 75.7% | 2.9% | 74-71 | 82 | West |
| Cleveland Guardians | 58.2% | 23.7% | 34.4% | 74-72 | 82 | Central |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 33.4% | 0.0% | 33.4% | 73-73 | 81 | East |
| Texas Rangers | 31.8% | 23.1% | 8.7% | 72-73 | 81 | West |
| Minnesota Twins | 2.7% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 69-76 | 78 | Central |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2.2% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 70-76 | 77 | East |
| Seattle Mariners | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 67-78 | 76 | West |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 66-79 | 74 | Central |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 64-82 | 71 | Central |
| Athletics | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 58-88 | 65 | West |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55-90 | 62 | West |
National League
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | >99.9% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 90-56 | 99 | Central |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | >99.9% | >99.9% | <0.1% | 88-57 | 98 | West |
| Atlanta Braves | >99.9% | 90.7% | 9.3% | 85-60 | 94 | East |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 95.1% | 9.3% | 85.8% | 81-64 | 90 | East |
| Chicago Cubs | 93.5% | 0.1% | 93.5% | 81-65 | 89 | Central |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.9% | 0.0% | 60.9% | 78-68 | 87 | West |
| San Diego Padres | 49.7% | <0.1% | 49.7% | 77-68 | 86 | West |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 72-73 | 80 | Central |
| Miami Marlins | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 72-74 | 79 | East |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 72-74 | 80 | Central |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 69-76 | 76 | Central |
| New York Mets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 67-78 | 75 | East |
| Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 67-80 | 74 | East |
| San Francisco Giants | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 61-85 | 68 | West |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55-89 | 63 | West |
These odds come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule — regressed team strength, log5 head-to-head, and MLB's real tiebreak order. Full methodology in How It Works.
Last computed Sep 9, 04:52 UTC ·
10,000 simulations