MLB Playoff Odds
Every team's chance to make the postseason, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Click a team for its magic number card.
American League
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 99.8% | 76.6% | 23.2% | 56-38 | 94 | East |
| New York Yankees | 96.9% | 23.0% | 73.9% | 54-42 | 90 | East |
| Cleveland Guardians | 84.7% | 50.8% | 33.9% | 51-46 | 86 | Central |
| Chicago White Sox | 78.2% | 38.8% | 39.4% | 50-45 | 85 | Central |
| Texas Rangers | 66.7% | 53.8% | 12.9% | 49-47 | 83 | West |
| Seattle Mariners | 46.7% | 30.4% | 16.3% | 48-49 | 81 | West |
| Minnesota Twins | 38.5% | 9.3% | 29.2% | 48-49 | 81 | Central |
| Boston Red Sox | 30.1% | 0.4% | 29.8% | 46-48 | 80 | East |
| Houston Astros | 27.4% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 47-51 | 79 | West |
| Baltimore Orioles | 11.6% | 0.1% | 11.5% | 46-51 | 77 | East |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 11.0% | 0.1% | 10.9% | 45-51 | 77 | East |
| Detroit Tigers | 7.2% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 44-52 | 76 | Central |
| Athletics | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 41-55 | 72 | West |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 38-59 | 67 | Central |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 38-59 | 67 | West |
National League
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 99.9% | 99.6% | 0.4% | 61-36 | 98 | West |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 99.4% | 88.5% | 10.8% | 59-37 | 96 | Central |
| Atlanta Braves | 92.0% | 62.2% | 29.8% | 55-40 | 91 | East |
| Chicago Cubs | 77.6% | 9.6% | 68.0% | 54-42 | 89 | Central |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 75.8% | 26.9% | 48.9% | 54-43 | 88 | East |
| Miami Marlins | 47.6% | 9.8% | 37.8% | 52-45 | 85 | East |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 37.7% | 1.2% | 36.4% | 50-45 | 84 | Central |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 24.0% | 0.3% | 23.7% | 49-47 | 83 | West |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 22.8% | 0.6% | 22.2% | 50-47 | 83 | Central |
| San Diego Padres | 12.8% | 0.1% | 12.6% | 48-48 | 81 | West |
| Washington Nationals | 10.2% | 1.1% | 9.1% | 48-49 | 80 | East |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 43-52 | 73 | Central |
| San Francisco Giants | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 41-55 | 71 | West |
| New York Mets | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 40-57 | 68 | East |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39-59 | 67 | West |
These odds come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule — regressed team strength, log5 head-to-head, and MLB's real tiebreak order. Full methodology in How It Works.
Last computed Jul 15, 07:21 UTC ·
10,000 simulations