MLB Playoff Odds
Every team's chance to make the postseason, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Click a team for its magic number card.
American League
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 99.7% | 67.4% | 32.3% | 61-43 | 93 | East |
| New York Yankees | 98.4% | 31.5% | 66.9% | 59-45 | 91 | East |
| Chicago White Sox | 76.4% | 49.6% | 26.8% | 54-49 | 85 | Central |
| Texas Rangers | 67.3% | 56.9% | 10.4% | 53-51 | 83 | West |
| Cleveland Guardians | 67.0% | 36.4% | 30.6% | 54-52 | 84 | Central |
| Boston Red Sox | 60.1% | 1.0% | 59.1% | 53-50 | 83 | East |
| Houston Astros | 38.1% | 25.9% | 12.2% | 52-54 | 80 | West |
| Minnesota Twins | 30.9% | 9.8% | 21.2% | 52-54 | 80 | Central |
| Seattle Mariners | 26.2% | 16.8% | 9.4% | 51-54 | 79 | West |
| Baltimore Orioles | 17.9% | 0.1% | 17.8% | 51-54 | 79 | East |
| Detroit Tigers | 14.0% | 4.3% | 9.8% | 50-55 | 78 | Central |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 48-57 | 75 | East |
| Athletics | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 44-60 | 71 | West |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 44-62 | 69 | Central |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41-64 | 66 | West |
National League
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| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | >99.9% | 99.8% | 0.2% | 67-38 | 101 | West |
| Milwaukee Brewers | >99.9% | 92.7% | 7.3% | 65-39 | 98 | Central |
| Atlanta Braves | 98.1% | 87.1% | 11.0% | 61-43 | 93 | East |
| Chicago Cubs | 89.9% | 7.1% | 82.7% | 59-45 | 89 | Central |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 60.9% | 10.2% | 50.7% | 56-49 | 85 | East |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.4% | 0.2% | 50.2% | 55-50 | 84 | West |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 24.9% | 0.1% | 24.7% | 53-51 | 82 | Central |
| Washington Nationals | 23.7% | 1.8% | 22.0% | 53-52 | 82 | East |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 21.6% | 0.1% | 21.5% | 53-52 | 81 | Central |
| San Diego Padres | 15.8% | 0.0% | 15.8% | 52-53 | 81 | West |
| Miami Marlins | 13.6% | 1.0% | 12.6% | 52-53 | 80 | East |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 48-55 | 75 | Central |
| San Francisco Giants | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 44-60 | 70 | West |
| New York Mets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43-62 | 68 | East |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42-64 | 66 | West |
These odds come from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule — regressed team strength, log5 head-to-head, and MLB's real tiebreak order. Full methodology in How It Works.
Last computed Jul 26, 07:12 UTC ·
10,000 simulations