MLB Playoff Odds
Every team's chance to make the postseason, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Click a team for its magic number card.
American League
| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 99.5% | 51.5% | 48.0% | 40-25 | 94 | East |
| New York Yankees | 99.3% | 48.1% | 51.2% | 41-26 | 94 | East |
| Cleveland Guardians | 83.0% | 52.7% | 30.3% | 37-33 | 86 | Central |
| Seattle Mariners | 80.5% | 60.7% | 19.9% | 36-32 | 85 | West |
| Chicago White Sox | 78.4% | 44.7% | 33.7% | 35-31 | 85 | Central |
| Texas Rangers | 41.4% | 17.9% | 23.5% | 32-34 | 80 | West |
| Athletics | 40.4% | 17.5% | 22.9% | 32-35 | 80 | West |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 35.2% | 0.3% | 34.8% | 33-35 | 79 | East |
| Houston Astros | 13.1% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 31-38 | 76 | West |
| Baltimore Orioles | 11.7% | <0.1% | 11.7% | 31-37 | 76 | East |
| Minnesota Twins | 8.0% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 30-38 | 74 | Central |
| Kansas City Royals | 3.6% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 28-39 | 72 | Central |
| Detroit Tigers | 3.4% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 28-39 | 72 | Central |
| Boston Red Sox | 2.1% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 27-39 | 71 | East |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 26-42 | 68 | West |
National League
| Team | Playoffs % | Div % | WC % | Record | Proj. W | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | >99.9% | 98.3% | 1.6% | 45-22 | 100 | East |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 99.4% | 96.3% | 3.1% | 43-24 | 97 | West |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 98.1% | 83.7% | 14.5% | 41-24 | 95 | Central |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 73.5% | 12.7% | 60.8% | 36-28 | 87 | Central |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 51.6% | 1.2% | 50.4% | 36-31 | 84 | East |
| San Diego Padres | 35.4% | 1.9% | 33.5% | 35-32 | 82 | West |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 35.4% | 1.9% | 33.5% | 34-32 | 82 | West |
| Washington Nationals | 33.1% | 0.4% | 32.7% | 35-34 | 82 | East |
| Chicago Cubs | 27.1% | 1.6% | 25.5% | 34-33 | 81 | Central |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 27.0% | 1.7% | 25.3% | 34-33 | 81 | Central |
| Miami Marlins | 10.9% | 0.1% | 10.8% | 32-35 | 78 | East |
| Cincinnati Reds | 7.2% | 0.3% | 6.8% | 32-35 | 77 | Central |
| New York Mets | 1.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 29-37 | 73 | East |
| San Francisco Giants | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 28-41 | 70 | West |
| Colorado Rockies | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 25-42 | 66 | West |
How these odds are calculated
We simulate every remaining game of the season 10,000 times. Each team's strength is its winning percentage regressed toward .500 (by about 70 games of league-average ball, so early-season records don't overreact), and each game is decided by the log5 head-to-head formula with a 54% home-field edge.
In every simulated season we crown three division winners per league and award three wild cards to the best remaining records, breaking ties with simulated head-to-head results and intradivision records — the same order MLB uses. The percentages above are simply how often each outcome happened across all 10,000 seasons.
Odds refresh several times a day as results come in. They're a model, not a promise — for the hard math of what's already locked in, see each team's magic and tragic numbers.